Closing gaps in tsunami preparedness with the Global Tsunami Hazard Model 2026 (GTHM26)
The Global Tsunami Model (GTM) is preparing its global tsunami hazard model update, expanding coastal coverage and strengthening the connections between earthquake source models, tsunami hazard assessment, and disaster risk tools.
Top, preview of the preliminary results of the updated GTHM26, for some points of interest (POI) around the Pacific Ocean: the probabilistic tsunami hazard curves illustrate the estimated annual frequency of exceeding different wave amplitudes. The mean model, median, 16th and 84th percentiles of model uncertainty and the 95% confidence intervals are shown.
From small island communities to densely populated coastal cities, access to reliable tsunami hazard information matters. A more detailed global picture can help bring these communities into focus, supporting local effort to understand the hazard and strengthen preparedness. To mark World Tsunami Awareness Day on the 5th of November 2026, GTM is sharing a preview of its upcoming Global Tsunami Hazard Model (GTHM26) update and what it offers researchers, preparedness agencies and risk practitioners.
Developed through an international scientific collaboration between universities, research institutes, tsunami warning centres and organisations performing hazard and risk analysis, the update expands the coverage and density of where tsunami hazard is calculated to tens of thousands of locations of the global coastline. At each location, the model addresses a practical question: how likely are tsunamis to exceed a given height? To answer this, probabilistic modelling aggregates results of millions of possible earthquake scenario, and the tsunamis they could generate. The result is a map showing how the tsunami hazard varies from place to place, with the uncertainty accounted for.
For public agencies and researchers, expanded coverage can help identify priorities for more detailed local studies, including how far inland damaging tsunami inundation can reach, and provide evidence to support coastal planning and preparedness.
The update strengthens interoperability and connections between earthquake source models, tsunami hazard calculation and risk assessment tools, for example GEM’s OpenQuake Engine. When combined with information of people and buildings exposed, their vulnerability, we can help supporting assessment of potential consequences to our coastal communities.
The launch of Global Tsunami Hazard Model (GTHM26) is expected in February 2027. Upcoming announcements will explain the release’s coverage, available resources and how to access them. Follow GTM on LinkedIn for launch updates!