New GTM-supported cookbook for tsunami hazard and risk analysis
A landmark publication brings together 68 researchers worldwide to establish best practices for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. The book serves as a cornerstone for the Global Tsunami Model.
Co-creating the recipe for safety: Authors discuss the initiation of the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis cookbook at the COST Action AGITHAR meeting in Malaga in June 2022. The book was designed as a practical guide to ensure that complex mathematical modelling translates into usable safety strategies for coastal communities. ( Photo: AGITHAR)
The newly released Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Cookbook (Springer, 2026) provides guidelines for assessing tsunami hazards and risks. Available as a free Open Access download, the cookbook is designed for government agencies, engineers, researchers, practitioners and students working on tsunami coastal safety.
“We wanted to create a book that would actually be used, not just sit on a shelf. That is why we chose the cookbook format: first, we describe the ingredients that represent the science parts, then we provide the recipes combining the ingredients”, says Mathilde B. Sørensen, lead editor.
A resource for the coastal community resilience
“For practitioners, policymakers, and organisations working to strengthen coastal community resilience and interested in understanding the benefits and limitations of methods in use today, the book offers a comprehensive starting point,” says Mario Salgado Galvez, Risk Knowledge Officer at the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, and editor. The book synthesizes state-of-the-art methods across the entire field of tsunami hazard and risk studies, drawing exclusively on published research.
“This book represents the scientific foundation on which we are building the Global Tsunami Model. By providing transparent, standardised methods, we aim to support better-informed decisions that ultimately reduce risk and strengthen resilience in coastal communities worldwide”, says Finn Løvholt, editor and GTM board member.
Economic resilience to tsunami risk across selected coastal and island states: Average annual loss as a share of GDP versus fiscal gap return periods for selected countries, illustrating how tsunami impacts translate into differing levels of economic stress. ( Illustration: UNDRR "The Cost of the Next Wave: Why Tsunami Risk Matters.")
From worst-case scenarios to probabilistic insight
Traditionally, tsunami hazard and risk analyses have relied on single worst-case scenarios. The probabilistic approach is different: instead of simulating a single event, researchers run hundreds or thousands of simulations that cover the full spectrum of possible tsunamis.
“A worst-case scenario can be a useful tool for specific applications, yet it is important to be aware that it tells you nothing about probability. You don't know if it occurs once in a century or once in a thousand years”, Stefano Lorito, editor and GTM board member, explains.
Three years in the making
The book is the result of the COST Action AGITHAR network, which was established as a catalyst for the development of the Global Tsunami Model. The AGITHAR network involved over 150 tsunami experts between 2019 and 2023. The work involved several international meetings, including a dedicated writing retreat in Hamburg.
The first part covers each step of the analysis chain: how do we describe the sources that trigger a tsunami? How do we model processes from wave generation, propagation across the ocean, to inundation? And critically, who and what is exposed to the hazard, how vulnerable are they, and how do we communicate the risk?
"We must understand the entire chain from the triggering event to the final consequence. A tsunami on a deserted coast is a natural event; a tsunami in a densely populated area is a catastrophe. Our methods must capture that distinction," says Jörn Behrens, editor of the volume, Chair of the GTM Board.
The second part contains 25 "recipes": detailed case studies showing how the methods have been applied in practice, from global tsunami hazard models to regional hazard analysis in the Mediterranean Sea to local applications in Norwegian fjords.
“We wanted the book to show how state-of-the-art methods can be applied to real examples. This can support better decisions on land-use planning, building codes, and evacuation routes in coastal areas worldwide,” Løvholt concludes.