Progress on the global hazard model

One of the flagship GTM services is the Global Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model from earthquake sources. Starting from the current version of the model (Davies et al. 2018), first update is being developed with the following novel features:

Input Sources

Subduction zones tessellated with triangular elements (Nikkhoo & Walter, 2015)
Variable Source Area and Heterogenous Slip distributions (Davies, 2019)
Depth-dependent subduction properties (Scala et al., 2019, Davies & Griffin, 2019)

Tsunami generation

Implementing the contribution of the horizontal deformation (Tanioka & Satake, 1996)

Tsunami Propagation

Global Tsunami-HySEA version

Interoperability

Standardized output for Risk Calculations
Standardized output for GIS
Flexibility in input seismic source model
Multiple scales (both source and coastline)
Interoperability with GEM OpenQuake Input/Output (Pagani et al., 2014; Silva et al., 2014)
Interoperability with Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF, Selva et al., 2021)

The PTHA in a nutshell (modified after Basili et al., 2021)

References

Basili, R., Brizuela, B., Herrero, A., Iqbal, S., Lorito, S., Maesano, F. E., Murphy, S., Perfetti, P., Romano, F., Scala, A., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Løvholt, F., … Zaytsev, A. (2021). The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18). Frontiers in Earth Science, 8(March), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.616594

Davies, G., Griffin, J., Løvholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C., Thio, H.K., Lorito, S., Basili, R., Selva, J., Geist, E., Baptista, M.A., (2018). A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources, Tsunamis: Geology, Hazards and Risks, E. M. Scourse, N. A. Chapman, D. R. Tappin, S. R. Geological Society of London,http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/SP456.5 – repo in https://zenodo.org/records/16964551

Davies, G. (2019). Tsunami variability from uncalibrated stochastic earthquake models: Tests against deep ocean observations 2006-2016. Geophysical Journal International, 218(3), 1939–1960. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz260

Davies, G. & Griffin, J., (2020). Sensitivity of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment to far-field earthquake slip complexity and rigidity depth-dependence: case study of Australia, Pure appl. Geophys., 177(3), 1521–1548

Nikkhoo, M., & Walter, T. R. (2015). Triangular dislocation: An analytical, artefact-free solution. Geophysical Journal International, 201(2), 1119–1141. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv035

Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Weatherill, G., Danciu, L., Crowley, H., Silva, V., Henshaw, P., Butler, L., Nastasi, M., Panzeri, L., Simionato, M. and Vigano, D., (2014). OpenQuake Engine: An open hazard (and risk) software for the Global Earthquake Model, Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 85, No. 3, pp 692-702

Scala, A. et al., 2020. Effect of shallow slip amplification uncertainty on probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis in subduction zones: use of long-term balanced stochastic slip models, Pure appl. Geophys., 177(3), 1497–1520

Silva, V., Crowley, H., Pagani, M. et al. (2014). Development of the OpenQuake engine, the Global Earthquake Model's open-source software for seismic risk assessment. Nat Hazards 72, 1409-1427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0618-x

Tanioka, Y., & Satake, K. (1996). Tsunami generation by horizontal displacement of ocean bottom. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(8), 861–864. https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00736